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Match dossier

Derby vs Bolton Predictions

England · Championship · Fri, 6 Nov 2026 · 21:00 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

England · ChampionshipFri, 6 Nov 2026

Derby

23rd in table · 10 pts

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Fri, 6 Nov 2026·21:00

3 : 1

Full timeTip: Derby · 2.5

Bolton

17th in table · 17 pts

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Win probability

36.8%Derby27.9%Draw35.4%Bolton

Our prediction

Derby

Derby is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.5
Confidence36.8%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 36.8%
  • Draw 27.9%
  • Bolton 35.4%

Board tips

Betting Tips

No extra market tips stored for this fixture yet. Use the prediction card and odds markets below.

Season statistics

Championship · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

DerbyBolton
Goals scored (avg)
0.71.7
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
2.11.9
Wins
25
Played
1515

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Derby0W 3D 6L in last 9
  • 3 NovDerby0 – 4NorwichL
  • 31 OctMillwall4 – 1DerbyL
  • 24 OctSheffield Utd1 – 1DerbyD
  • 17 OctDerby0 – 1Stoke CityL
  • 14 OctQPR4 – 1DerbyL
  • 10 OctDerby1 – 1WrexhamD
  • 19 SeptBurnley1 – 1DerbyD
  • 12 SeptDerby1 – 2BirminghamL
  • 9 SeptDerby0 – 1West BromL
Bolton4W 1D 4L in last 9
  • 3 NovCharlton0 – 1BoltonW
  • 31 OctBolton2 – 3Bristol CityL
  • 23 OctBolton1 – 5MiddlesbroughL
  • 17 OctSouthampton0 – 0BoltonD
  • 13 OctWolves1 – 3BoltonW
  • 10 OctBolton1 – 2Stoke CityL
  • 20 SeptNorwich3 – 4BoltonW
  • 12 SeptBolton1 – 0CardiffW
  • 8 SeptBolton2 – 3West HamL
H2H
Head to headDerby 6W · 1D · Bolton 2W · 2.6 goals a game
  • 16 MarDerby1 – 0Bolton
  • 2 SeptBolton2 – 1Derby
  • 21 JanDerby2 – 1Bolton
  • 27 DecBolton0 – 0Derby
  • 13 AprDerby4 – 0Bolton
  • 29 SeptBolton1 – 0Derby
  • 7 AprDerby3 – 0Bolton
  • 19 AugBolton1 – 2Derby
  • 9 AprDerby4 – 1Bolton

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.9% · 1.041.8% · 13
1.5 goals19.5% · 1.225.5% · 4.33
2.5 goals13.8% · 1.7311.3% · 2.1
3.5 goals8.7% · 2.7516.5% · 1.44

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%
No42.1%

Double chance

1X31.7%
1236.6%
X231.7%

Match result

Derby2.5
Draw3.3
Bolton2.6

Both teams to score

Yes57.9% · 1.6
No42.1% · 2.2

1X

Chance31.7%
Odds1.5

12

Chance36.6%
Odds1.3

X2

Chance31.7%
Odds1.5

Derby

Chance36.8%
Odds2.5

Draw

Chance27.9%
Odds3.3

Bolton

Chance35.4%
Odds2.6

First half result

Derby31.3% · 2.9
Draw39.4% · 2.3
Bolton29.3% · 3.1

Half goals

1st over 0.5100% · 1.3

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Derby at 2.5

DerbyBolton
Recent form19%81%
Attack29%71%
Defence45%55%
Goals model29%71%
Head-to-head72%28%
Overall51%49%

Trends

Trend · Championship

Derby scored 0.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Championship

Derby conceded 2.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Championship

Failed to score in 3 of those 9.

Trend · Championship

Over 2.5 goals in 4 of those 9.

Derby vs Bolton: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Fri, 6 Nov 2026

Derby meet Bolton in the England, Championship on 6 November 2026 at 21:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Derby at 2.5. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 36.8% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.73, about 54.8% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.6.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Derby vs Bolton FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Derby vs Bolton match?

Kickoff is 21:00 on 6 November 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Derby vs Bolton?

Derby is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.5. The margin-adjusted share is about 36.8%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.73 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.6. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.