8xbet Guide: Have You Tried Betting on Underdog? Why Do They Dominate
Underdog betting continues to fascinate a lot of sports fans. But then in recent years, it has taken center stage and serious betting discussion see it mentioned.
Today, people believe that it is better to bet on favorites because stronger teams are easily the ones that win so if you back them, then you should not be at risk.
However, there is data to suggest that the underdogs should not be ruled out.
In this 8xbet guide, we are going to be looking at how underdogs are being talked about today and why betting conversations show that they sometimes outperform the expectations that people have of them.
At the end of this guide, you are going to understand the psychology of betting on underdog markets and how statistics show they are valuable.
Understanding What an Underdog Really Is in Betting
In betting, an underdog is simply the weaker team or athlete. It is the team or player that is given the lowest odds because of their probability of winning. The higher the odds, the more likely the team is to not win which is how you can tell the underdog. If there is a game and one team has 1.33 odds to win and the other has 5.00 odds to win, the latter is the underdog in this context.
Underdogs appear everywhere and it does not matter the sport you are working with, you will always find underdogs around.
Why Sportsbooks Price Underdogs the Way They Do
You should know that sportsbooks do not try to predict the outcome of the game. They just want to balance the risk and reward aspect of the game and here are a few other factors to note:
Public Bias Toward Favorites
Decades of betting data show that generally bettors prefer to back favorites. 65% of wagers are placed on the team that is perceived to be the stronger side especially in important matches.
As a result of this imbalance, you tend to see sportsbooks shorten the odds for the favorite and of course increase the odds for the underdogs. We call this the favorite-longshot bias.
You can expect to find this kind of bias at 8x bet which means that human behaviour is still the same from many years before.
The Favorite-Longshot Bias Explained Simply
The favorite-longshot bias means the pattern where a team that are favorites are going to be overpriced and then the underdogs are going to be underpriced. This pricing is not because of their probability but because bettors generally favor it.
A landmark academic study analyzed 1 million horse racing bets. It found out that the returns on favorites were significantly lower when compared to the returns on mid-range horses or underdogs even though the favorites often won.
And this principle does not change even with modern sports betting.
You can tell that underdogs often lose but then the odds sometimes compensate for the risk of betting on favorites.
Why Underdogs Dominate in Long-Term Betting Data
So why is it that underdogs dominate the long-term approach to betting? There are a few things that we can talk about.
Football League Data Example
20,000 football matches across the major leagues in Europe were analyzed between 2015 and 2024 and it was discovered that betting on favorites returned on average -6 percent and choosing underdogs at 2.50 and 4.00 produced near break-even profits.
Things like home advantage, congestion of schedule, and motivation all provided context to the underdog strategy.
This is not to say that underdogs are winning. The idea is that the odds for the underdogs are usually very accurate.
Psychological Factors That Make Underdogs Powerful
Numbers alone do not define the essence of underdogs betting and here are some psychological factors that make them seem powerful:
Pressure on Favorites
Favorites carry expectations. In high-profile matches, pressure can change decision-making, increase mistakes, and reduce performance. Underdogs often play with freedom, especially when little is expected of them.
There is expectation on the path of the favorites and the pressure can lead to poor decision-making and mistakes. Underdogs are playing with freedom because there’s not much expectation from them.
We have even seen that underdogs take more risks in games and that sometimes gets rewarded.
At 8x bet, live betting markets frequently reflect this dynamic as matches unfold and momentum shifts.
Motivation Gaps and Situational Underdogs
It is not every underdog that’s an underdog. Some underdogs are just underdogs on paper whereas in reality they are able to cause harm to other teams.
In addition, there are things that help underdogs and they are:
- The congestion of schedule for the favorites
- Rotation and squad depth
- The matches ahead for the favorites
- Derby games where emotions are flying everywhere.
It is very possible that a mid table team playing against a title contender 3 days before they have a crucial champions league match to play would be undervalued by the market.
Knowing how to handle a situation like this is one of the most effective underdog strategies available to users at 8xbet.com.
Statistical Indicators That Favor Underdogs
It is important to work with statistics but you should understand that these numbers only matter in the face of context.
Expected Goals and Performance Metrics
In football, you must have heard about the expected goals metric but this does not reveal anything except teams that are performing badly or underperforming. An underdog that has an xG that is close to these stronger openings may be giving too much value.
The data from analytics show that teams that have an xG differential within 0.3 of the opponents sometimes win or draw far more than what the odds will suggest.
Efficiency Over Volume
For basketball, there are underdogs that rank high in shooting efficiency but are low in pace. These are some of the underdogs that get overlooked.
These patterns are regularly seen across all sports and their visible when you check the market data at 8xbet platform
Why Market Timing Matters for Underdog Betting
Timing is very essential but it is sadly underestimated.
Early Odds vs Closing Odds
The value of an underdog will always appear early especially when the public has not yet started voting down the favorites. When the match day is approaching, the favorite will get more action and then the underdog prices will now go higher.
If you are tracking the line movement across 8x bet markets, you’re going to see that underdogs often reach their peak value hours before the kick off.
It should also be noted that in some cases a late breaking news can alter everything and even the odds out.
Live Betting and Underdog Momentum
Live betting has made underdog opportunities possible. When favorites are dominating possession in a game but are not able to score, the odds on the underdog will start to rise dramatically.
And even though this happens, the dynamics of the match may still favor the underdogs as frustration begins to rise for the favorite.
Live beta analysis from football leagues have shown that the underdogs who scored first win or draw almost 60% of the time but then the prematch odds still does not imply higher probabilities.
Common Myths About Betting on Underdogs
There are some common misunderstandings about underdog betting.
One of the first things that people get wrong is that underdog betting is all about chasing high odds.
But the truth is that, a disciplined underdog strategy is to focus on mid-range prices and not long shots.
Another thing that many bettors get wrong is that underdog betting needs you to be on a constant losing streak.
If you properly understand what all of these are, you’re able to wade through the waters and understand how to go about underdog betting.
Bankroll Management for Underdog Strategies
Due to the fact that underdogs lose more often than favorites, bankroll management is actually very important. From statistical models, we can see that sticking between 0.5% and 1.5% of your capital per underdog bet is going to reduce the volatility that you will suffer and does not sacrifice long-term growth.
So flat staking or mild proportional staking is what works best. If you’re trying to be aggressive, you’re going to increase the risks without improving your chances of winning. This is why at 8xbet we emphasize on careful and strategic planning.
Case Study: Underdog Success Across Sports
Football Example
It was found out that during the 2022 World Cup, in the group stage, underdogs won or drew 38% of matches even though the implied probability for them to do so was 25%.
Tennis Example
During the ATP tournaments, underdogs that were ranked outside the top 30 defeated the top 10 opponents 28% of the time in the hard court events of the 2023 edition.
Why Underdogs Fit Modern Betting Better Than Ever
Modern Sports betting is faster and more public driven than ever before. Today, you’ve got social media, headlines, and narratives that push favorite prices lower while adding numbers to the prices of the underdog.
Such an environment favors those who are willing to think differently and at 8xbet com, we provide the market insights and coverage needed to allow underdog focused betting.
Final Thoughts: Why Underdogs Continue to Dominate
Underdogs generally dominate and it is not because they win more but because the market always misjudges them.
So if you’re going to approach it with discipline, context, and patience, underdog betting becomes a very powerful tool than just a wild goose chase.
If you’re interested in learning more about underdog betting strategies and how to decipher the market mechanics,liên hệ 8xbet is here to help you do just that.
